The final stretch: Groups A-D

10 days in, and we're down to the final stretch for half of the teams at this World Cup. So who's sitting pretty? Who's making tentative vacation plans for next week?
Let's take it from the top

Group A: The hosts and la catastrophe...
France and South Africa go into their final group game knowing that a win might see them through, but both know it's unlikely. Both are 4 and 5 goals worse off than 2nd placed Mexico. It's not impossible, but France for example are looking at a 2 goal loss for Mexico, and a 2 goal win against South Africa.
Being knocked out at this stage for both teams is a disappointment for very different reasons. The French hardly looked themselves for a while now, but are still a team that has high expectations placed upon them. They have had the most farcical of implosions that a major team has faced in recent times, and many will be glad to see the back of Domenech, even if France somehow progress from the group. Come Tuesday evening, South Africa will likely have the dubious honour of being the only host nation to get knocked out of a World Cup in the group stages. Hopefully the stadiums will still fill up despite the disappointment of the home fans.
Uruguay haven't conceded a goal in their 2 games so far, and will back themselves to finish top of this group. A draw will do for them, and a loss may still see them through, albeit in the unenviable position of facing South American rivals Argentina in the next round. The Argentines twice defeated Uruguay in qualifying, 2-1 and 1-0.

Group B: Argentina and ?
Argentina aren't guaranteed a 1st place finish in this group just yet, but they can book a place in the next round with a draw or win against Greece. If Argentina beats Greece, 2nd spot is up for grabs in the other game. South Korea hold the advantage over Nigeria, with a draw seeing them through (if Argentina win). Nigeria can feel good about their chances despite some poor showings, they're still very much in the hunt. A win against South Korea and a loss for Greece will see the Super Eagles leap frog into 2nd place, where they could face Uruguay or Mexico.

Group C: The wide open group...
With the way that these teams have been playing, Group C is wide open. It's gone from a group where many predicted an easy path for England and the USA, to all 4 sides holding their destiny in their hands. Algeria did hold England to a draw, however I still can't see them beating the USA. England may be the biggest disappointment of the tournament so far. They were in the top 3 or 4 pre-tournament favourites, but a few injuries and a goalkeeping howler have left them needing to get a result against Slovenia. A draw could see them knocked out if the USA defeats Algeria, so Cappello's men will definitely be looking for a win. If they don't get it, it's likely they won't be Cappello's men any longer.

Group D: ...just group D...
Germany began with a 4-0 drubbing of 10 man Australia, but fell to Serbia in the following game. This blew the group wide open. Australia's terrible goal difference leaves them extremely unlikely to qualify, but they could play spoiler for Serbia. If they can keep all 11 men on the field on Tuesday, I think they can pull off a draw against the Serbs. This would mean that Ghana just has to draw with Germany, and they'll not only progress from the group, but will do so in 1st place, with a likely match against...oh that's right, it's a toss up where anyone is going to finish in group C. A draw is of course going to be tough for Ghana to pull off against Germany, even with striker Miroslav Klose being suspended for the game, after a questionable sending off. That makes 2 questionable, and vital suspensions, in this group. Ghana can lose (by 1 goal) and still progress, if Serbia and Australia draw.

So that's my waffling and rambling for Tuesday and Wednesday's matches.

My predictions for next round's match ups for these groups are...

Uruguay (1st) - South Korea (2nd)
Argentina (1st) - Mexico (2nd)
England (1st) - Ghana (2nd)
Germany (1st) - USA (2nd)

Scoring round 1

Time for the first annual "Nuwan's round by round awards (for the World Cup)". I should come up with a catchy name for it like all those other awards ceremonies, but then again mine lacks a few things that other ceremonies have. Just to name a few, there is no red carpet, there is no host (well, there's me), and none of the nominees are present. In fact, there are no nominees, just winners (and losers).

So, for an awards "ceremony" like no other, let's get it started.

The winners...
The Vuvuzela toting fans. Despite continued protests from various parties, including I'm sure, those earplug less fans standing in front of a Vuvuzela, the plastic fan favourites have received FIFA's blessing, and will remain an integral part of the soundtrack to the 2010 World Cup. Viva Vuvuzela!

The officiating. Not often you see so many well officiated games, particularly if you're used to watching Premier League football and hearing managers whine about every missed foul, that cost them the game. Aside from Tim Cahill's very harsh sending off, I can't think of too many controversial decisions, apart from Raymond Domenech's substitutions, but I digress...

David James. Seems he got his starting job back after poor Rob Green added his name to the ever-growing list of England goalkeepers who have managed to find a way to help their opposition to score. Let's throw in Clint Dempsey as a winner, for "scoring" the easiest World Cup goal he'll ever score.

The Irish. No one is enjoying watching Domenech run France into the ground at this World Cup, as much as the Irish are. Since they're missing out for another 4 years, the next best thing for the natives of the Emerald Isle, is to see the French fail (yes I cheated a little bit and included France's loss to Mexico in the 2nd group game).

Germany. The most convincing first round winners courtesy of 4 different goalscorers. They looked dangerous, against an admittedly weak (and undermanned) Australian side.

Paraguay. Produced the first semi-shock of the tournament. It was only a semi-shock because they only managed a draw against Italy. They looked dangerous at times, but didn't look like they could last 90 minutes against good opposition.

New Zealand. The All Whites scored the tournament's first injury time goal, and got their first ever points in a World Cup.

North Korea. The mystery team to most, even though they qualified just like the other 31 countries, put up a real fight against Brazil. They will certainly have pundits scrambling to amend early predictions.

Switzerland. That's right, Switzerland were winners, against Spain! The defensively minded Swiss somehow held out against Spain's barrage, and stole a fortuitous goal. Some would say they got some help from Sara Carbonero, but that's as ludicrous as Switzerland winning this group...right?

The losers...

France. Yes, France's failure is baffling, until you see who's at their helm...still...somehow. Domenech's substitutions contributed to their poor draw against Uruguay. Taking off Gourcuff topped the list for me, as he looked most dangerous.

Rob Green, Faouzi Chaouchi and Justo Villar. 3 keepers, 3 gaffes. Green fortunately only cost his team a point, but Chaouchi lost the game against Slovenia, and Villar cost Paraguay a major upset against Italy...well, half of the upset

Big names England and Spain. The difference here is Spain looked good, despite losing to Switzerland. England didn't look at all like pre World Cup big dogs. Rooney looked out of form and absent from the game. Ledley King followed Rio Ferdinand onto the England injury list, and with uncertainty over who should start in goal, the vital relationship between the central defenders and the goalkeeper has been disrupted. John Terry is the only original player from that starting trio, and he's not one for good relationships anyway.

Round 2 of the awards coming at you in a week, time to get back to this USA game.

World Cup opener: South Africa - Mexico

1433 days since Italy beat France and we're back in that warm fuzzy place, the World Cup!

Hosts South Africa kicked off the World Cup today against Mexico today, with the hopes of a nation and a continent hanging on Bafana Bafana. Doubts had been raised at various times over South Africa's ability to be ready for the July 11th kick off, but Friday rolled around and everything has gone smoothly so far.

The game started off on a sad note with the absence of Nelson Mandela due to the death of his grand-daughter. The vuvuzelas and cheers rang out through the stadium prior to kick off, but I shudder to think of the din that would have accompanied Madiba's words.

This game was really a tale of 2 halves, and the first five minutes were all Mexico's.
While Mexico saw a lot of the ball for the first half they failed to create too many decent chances. There was a definite contrast between the calmness of the Mexicans and the shaky nervy play of the hosts, especially with the back four. Goalkeeper Khune spilled a low cross early that fell to Giovani dos Santos but his shot was well blocked by captain Aaron Mokoena. He certainly redeemed himself later making a fine save, staying on his feet to deny Guillermo Franco after a delicate chip from Carlos Vela put the Mexican striker through.

France and Vela combined again 5 minutes before the interval, when the young Vela thought he'd scored this tournament's 1st goal. Franco's header from a corner was going wide when Vela nodded it in, but Khune's flying attempt to clear the corner left Vela offside.

South Africa had a few chances, most notably from a couple of fine crosses from Tshabalala down the left, but it was 0-0 going into the break.

The 1st World Cup goal on African soil was appropriately scored by the hosts. A few one touch passes and Tshabalala's run down the left before he drilled a glorious shot across and right into the top corner of the goal. Certainly a goal worthy to kick the tournament off, particularly as Tshabalala is a hometown boy, born in Soweto. Can't imagine what it would have been like to be in that stadium at that moment.

The goal definitely put some wind in South Africa's sails (Vuvuzela power might be a new source of renewable energy). They had the better of the 2nd half and had a few chances to increase their lead, probably the best chance falling to Teko Modise.
However the hosts couldn't capitalise and were made to pay for it. Poor communication in the defense left three of the back four rushing out to catch the Mexicans offside, but as the cross came in from the left, Mokoena stayed static, leaving 3 Mexicans onside. Rafael Marquez took time to bring it down and drill it past Khune from close range. Vuvuzela power went from 1000 decibels to 0 in 2 seconds!

Katlego Mphela, South Africa's in form striker (5 goals in 6 games) almost sent the home crowd into raptures in the penultimate minute when he was put through on goal. He rolled the ball past Perez but was denied by the post, what would be the last chance of the game.

South Africa looked deflated at the final whistle but they could be proud of their performance. I for one hardly think that a South African win would have been against the run of play, in what was definitely an even game.

What looked to be a slow and boring game early on definitely picked up, and was worthy of a World Cup opener. Both teams left themselves with some work to do. South Africa will need a win against Uruguay to ease the pressure on them going into their final game against France. They did themselves and their fans proud, and will hopefully go from strength to strength over the next few games.

30 minutes till the next game, France vs Uruguay.

Africa's cup?

If you say it enough, does it make it true? African football fans will certainly hope so, as Shakira's World Cup anthem "Waka Waka (this time for Africa)" rings around South Africa's stadiums before the matches. South Africa's winning bid to host the World Cup is already a massive victory, not just for the Rainbow Nation, but for the African continent as a whole. This is Africa's biggest sporting showpiece to date, at least to my knowledge, and hopefully the first of many.

However is this really Africa's time? With a record six nations representing CAF this tournament, fans would certainly hope so.

So let's look at the chances of the African nations.

South Africa

What better place to start than with this year's hosts? All the pressure is certainly on Bafana Bafana. No host nation has ever failed to move on from the group stages. 19 hosts in the group stages (18 World Cups, 19 hosts. 1000 points if you figure that one out without Google), 19 hosts who progressed to the knockout stages. This year's hosts certainly don't want the dubious honour of the nation that breaks that trend, but they are widely considered as the weakest of the nations representing Africa, largely owing to the fact that they didn't have to earn their spot through qualifying.
South Africa however have shown some excellent form coming into the tournament, going unbeaten for their last 12 matches, stretching back to October of last year when they lost by a single goal away to Iceland.
Furthermore they face a group of good, but not great teams, in the shape of France (probable group winners), Uruguay and Mexico. This is by no means easy passage for the hosts, but it is also no group of death and they can be hopeful of progressing.
This combined with the boisterous, Vuvuzela-toting crowds, could see the hosts through allowing them to avoid an embarrassing place in football's history books.

Likely 2nd round match up: Argentina

Verdict: It will definitely go down to the wire in this evenly matched group, and I think the potential for embarrassment and the home town support will go a long way in helping the hosts progress behind France. They won't go any further than the 2nd round.

Nigeria

The Super Eagles are in a group with potential cup winners Argentina, so they'll be vying for 2nd place against South Korea and the defensive minded Greeks. Unless Nigeria bring back their heroics of the 1996 Olympic games when they beat Argentina to win the gold medal, they'll have to rely on results against the other group foes to progress. The loss of John Obi Mikel certainly hurts their chances, but don't be surprised to see Nigeria progress from this group.

Likely 2nd round match up: France

Verdict: As long as the Super Eagles progress from their group, which I think they will, they won't be too disappointed with playing France in the 2nd round. Don't get me wrong, the French are a good side, but it's hardly the worst match up the Nigerians could get. I'm still leaning towards Nigeria being knocked out at this stage.

Algeria

Les Fennecs give South Africa a challenge for worst African nation in the tournament and will struggle to make it out of their group. The North Africans did well to keep African champions Egypt out of the tournament, but they wouldn't have been thrilled to have drawn contenders England in their group, nor the United States. Slovenia complete the group of opponents for the Algerians, and may provide the likeliest source of points. I wouldn't totally rule them out, playmaker Ziani could cause problems for other teams, as long as the other ten men on the pitch can get him the ball.

Likely 2nd round match up: Germany

Verdict: Algeria won't be good enough to get out of this group, they'll do well to get a point.

Ghana

While the Black Stars gave Africa their best showing in the last World Cup, it will be tough to pull together a similar string of inspired performances again. Their chances took a big blow with the loss of their masterful midfielder, Michael Essien. As far as opponents go, Ghana face a fairly formidable trio. Germany are perennial over-achievers in the World Cup, and this year should be no different. Serbia provide as solid a defense as any in the tournament, Ghana will be looking to catch them off guard in the first group game. They then go on to play the Socceroos, who will be their best chance at gaining points. Hopefully for their sake they would have racked up enough points by June 23rd, or they'll have to pull off a surprise against the Germans.

Likely 2nd round match up: England

Verdict: Close call between Ghana and Serbia to clinch 2nd place, and I don't think the Ghanaians will make it.

Cameroon

Africa's most experienced team (in terms of appearances in the World Cup) had to wait till the final day of qualification to book their spot in the tournament. They recovered from a poor start in qualification, to make it through, and will look to continue their good form in the group stages. They're up against the Oranje (Holland), Denmark and Japan. None of these will be easy games for the Indomitable Lions, but they'll look to striker Samuel Eto'o to take a leaf out of Cameroonian legend Roger Milla's book, and lead them deep into the tournament.
The Dutch obviously pose the toughest challenge in this group, and if Cameroon can sneak a point against them it will go a long way to helping them progress. Like Ghana, they'll look to get two good results against weaker foes (Denmark and Japan) before they face the Dutch in their final group game. Cameroonian fans will fancy their chances to follow the Dutch through to the 2nd round.

Likely 2nd round match up: Italy

Verdict: Cameroon will make it out of their group, and I don't think the defending champions are as powerful as they were when they lifted the trophy four years ago. I am incredibly biased, as to me they were undeserving winners anyway, but that's another blog entry. Cameroon and Senegal are the only African teams to have progressed as far as the quarter finals in the World Cup, and if I'm seeing a shock in the 2nd round for any African teams, it's with Cameroon toppling Italy to repeat their glory of 1990.

Cote d'Ivoire

Didier Drogba, the man on whom this nation's hopes hung, will be lucky to see a game in this tournament. They still have a few very capable players, and can't totally be ruled out in Drogba's absence. Still, a few weeks ago they would have been my top pick for African success in this tournament, and have fallen far since Drogba's injury. The prolific striker would have caused serious trouble for group opponents North Korea, Portugal and perhaps even Brazil. The Ivorians face the two tougher opponents first, and if they can steal a win against Portugal, they can certainly feel good going into their final game against North Korea. I really think the race for 2nd place in this group hinges on that first game between Portugal and Cote d'Ivoire.

Likely 2nd round match up: Spain

Verdict: Injured superstar + first round group opponents Brazil and Portugal + a likely match up against Spain if they progress = a tough outlook for the West Africans. I think they will make it out of their group, but not past Spain.

So that's my predictions for African hopefuls over the next month. Algeria to fall early along with Ghana. South Africa, Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire and Cameroon will all make it through to the 2nd round, but will all face tough opponents there. Cameroon will have the best chance of getting any further.

Hardly looking like Africa's time, which is a shame given high hopes after qualification. Having said that, hopefully there will be a great amount of solidarity among traveling African fans, hopefully enough to inspire a big upset or two. That would make this tournament a memorable one for the host continent.

broken bones and broken World Cup dreams

Sometime between June 11th and July 11th, 736 players are going to leave South Africa empty handed. Some may exceed expectations, but only 23 will leave with the ultimate prize, the World Cup Trophy.

However some players are making the trophiless trip home prematurely, with a spate of injuries hitting potential World Cup suitors. The list of players in serious doubt to even make an appearance at this summer's tournament (winter for the hosts) isn't a list of lesser known players who we feel sorry for, for missing this opportunity of opportunities. Rather it's dominated by big names. A captain, a premier striker, a flying winger, a midfield rock, and a superstar of last World Cup. These are just the highlights, or rather lowlights, of a growing injury list leading to the June 11th kick-off of the World Cup.

Rio Ferdinand (England), Didier Drogba (Cote d'Ivoire), Arjen Robben (Holland), Michael Essien (Ghana), Andrea Pirlo (Italy). These are players either totally ruled out, if not highly unlikely to turn out at all for the tournament. Furthermore injuries for Brazil's goalkeeper Julio Cesar and Nigerian midfielder John Obi Mikel, have them as doubts for the opening fixtures. Throw in a couple more defenders and a striker, and you have a high profile starting XI of injured players who could miss the World Cup.

It once again throws into question the amount of football that is played today. Take Bayern Munich, who won a close race to the Bundesliga title, leaving them little room to rest key players (Robben) late in the season. In addition they went the distance in the DFB Pokal (German knockout cup) and went to the Champions League final too. That's over 50 games this season. Ironically Robben avoided burnout from Bayern's extended season because he was in the stands injured for much of it, missing nearly half of Munich's games.

Some even question the need for some of these superstars to play significant time in friendlies and warm up games for the World Cup. Obviously getting accustomed to the climate in South Africa, as well as to playing with international teammates again is important, but teams like Cote d'Ivoire in particular will rue the loss of their injured stars.

One can't help but feel for the aforementioned players. It's one thing to not qualify for the tournament or to be "Thierry Henry'd" out of the tournament, but to fall at the last hurdle, being injured in training not a week from the tournament kick-off is well and truly gutting.

The various injuries certainly impact each team to different degrees.

Drogba is one of the best strikers in the World and while Cote d'Ivoire still have talent in Kolo Toure, Yaya Toure and Aruna Dindane to name a few, their World Cup hopes very much rested on the shoulders (and intact arm) of Drogba.
The same can be said for Ghana, who are now missing half of the midfield duo that gives the Black Stars their drive. Michael Essien is a quality player on both sides of the ball (...sorry, I need to pause, it pained me to say that), and one that a team short on quality, like Ghana, could ill-afford to lose.

Where these African teams see their chances of World Cup success fade away, other teams can still rely on their quality-ridden squads to pull them through.

Italy may miss one of their stars of the last World Cup. Andrea Pirlo was man of the match 3 times in the 2006 tournament, including the semi final and final. His magic in midfield contributed to crucial goals (of which Italy didn't score many at all), including Marco Materazzi's header in the final. However Italy's squad is once again stacked with experienced players, and Pirlo's loss, while important, will not be a deathblow to the Azzurri.

Robben is in top form at the moment and football fans worldwide will sadly miss his blistering pace and play down the wing. However his loss to a star-studded Dutch team is far less than some of the other names on that list. If anything coach Bert van Marwijk's job has been made a little easier. Prior to Robben's injury there was a lot of demand for "the fab four" (Robin van Persie, Rafael van der Vaart, Wesley Sneijder and Arjen Robben) to all feature in the starting XI. This fearsome orange foursome would certainly terrorise their opponents, but the obvious risk was being caught short handed defensively. However with Robben out, van Persie, van der Vaart and Sneijder can all start, with the more than capable Dirk Kuyt taking a starting place on the field.

Rio Ferdinand's loss to England is somewhere inbetween the case of Robben and the case of Drogba / Essien, in significance to the team.
England's squad is up there with the best of them, and are probably top five favourites to win the Cup. However there may be one place where England cannot afford to lose a starter, and the central defense is it. Ferdinand has missed much of this year with Manchester United with back troubles, and has hardly lived up to his stalwart defense of the previous season. However with Ferdinand out now, England's formidable central partnership has more questions asked about it. Ferdinand gave the central pairing some height, and ability to defend set pieces. John Terry has shown himself to be a little more susceptible to aerial attacks recently. Not only that, but Ferdinand's back-up, Ledley King is as unable to retain his fitness as West Bromwich Albion are a spot in the Premier League. King would be an ideal replacement, a strong and powerful defender, but will most certainly only be able to play significant minutes in every other game. This is as a result of the same knee injuries that have prevented him from reaching his full potential.

England should be just fine without Ferdinand in the end, they have too strong a squad. Ferdinand doesn't quite compare to Beckham and Rooney in their primes, but he joins them on an ever growing list of England stars that fall prey to injury come tournament time.

Sadly the World Cup has lost some of its biggest stars before the tournament has even begun, and expect to see at least one or two more fall as the games progress. Although let's look at a positive from this unfortunate situation. Teams such as Portugal, North Korea (ok, this one is a stretch), Australia and Serbia see their chances of progressing from the group stage increase at the expense of Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana (although I still have both African sides progressing from their groups). Not only that, but a player who was cut from the initial 30 man squad of these teams, now has a chance to make an impact on football's biggest stage. Injuries to stars on some of the bigger teams may even make for a more interesting tournament, with more upsets.

All we can hope for now is a quiet, uneventful and injury-free next 5 days and 17 hours!