3:18pm. That's the time that this year's Barclay's Premier League unofficially became a one-and-a-half horse race. That's the best way I can put it.
Advantage Chelsea, while Man United have to hope for the Blues to drop points in at least one of their last three games.
What a difference a weekend makes. At the beginning of this weekend, Chelsea were four points clear of United, with Arsenal a further two points behind. Late late drama in the Manchester derby saw Paul Scholes score an injury time winner (United's third against Man City this season). Soon after that, Tottenham downed Chelsea 2-1, and a day later Charles N'Zogbia's late strike against Arsenal put the Gunners six points adrift of Chelsea, effectively ending their long standing pursuit of the title.
Barring massive failures from United and Chelsea in the final three games of their respective seasons, this year marks the fifth consecutive season that the Arsenal trophy cabinet remains unchanged. A huge disappointment for a team of their caliber.
On the domestic stage, eyes will be firmly fixed on Chelsea and United, and with both sides out of Europe, neither can have any excuses to not focus their complete attention on the final three games this season. Yes I'm aware Chelsea have the FA Cup final to play too, but let's be honest, I think they're focused on the league right now.
Here's how the remainder of their seasons look.
Manchester United
vs Tottenham (H) 15 points (from last 6 games)
vs Sunderland (A) 10 points
vs Stoke (H) 8 points
Spurs are the in-form team in the league, winning all but one of their last six encounters, the last two of which were against local rivals, Arsenal and Chelsea. United can count their blessings that they're not playing at White Hart Lane. Tottenham are a very average team on the road, at least as far as the season-long picture looks, while United have got 42 out of a possible 51 points at home this season. They did however lose their last game there (to Chelsea) and Spurs cannot be taken lightly on their current form.
Gareth Bale scored against both Arsenal and Chelsea. While United will be hoping to face the Pavlyuchenko who squandered many a chance against Chelsea, they still have to be wary of the Russian, as well as Peter Crouch and Jermaine Defoe. April 24th, mark down that date!
Sunderland will be United's penultimate opponents this season. When the sides last met in October, a silly late sending off for Kieran Richardson left 10 man Sunderland hanging on to a slender lead deep into injury time, when Ferdinand (no, not Rio, the other one), diverted the ball into his own net, giving United a point from the encounter. Sunderland have been a very up and down side lately, beating Tottenham and Birmingham, stealing a point from encounters with Villa and Birmingham, but losing to West Ham earlier in the month.
Good recent form or not, United should have no excuses for not beating Sunderland.
Finally United end the season at Old Trafford against Stoke. They beat them 2-0 at the Britannia way back in September, and should see them off once again.
and now to the league leaders...
Chelsea
vs Stoke (H) 8 points
vs Liverpool (A) 8 points
vs Wigan (H) 7 points
I'll be fair and give the same opinion I did for United, Chelsea should handle Stoke relatively easily. They beat them in an FA cup game 2-0, while their game at Stoke back in September saw Chelsea winning 2-1, with goals deep in injury time at the end of both halves for Chelsea.
Chelsea vs Liverpool...should be a Chelsea win, right? Especially with the latest news on Torres. Now consider Chelsea is playing Liverpool AT ANFIELD. Suddenly this encounter becomes a lot more interesting. Call me a hopeful United fan!
Of their last six games at home, they've only dropped points in one...which incidentally was the last game they played at home. So my hopes slide a little.
Simply because it's Chelsea's season to lose, this is the crucial game of the remaining season. United's game against Tottenham is a big one, but anything but a win for Chelsea against Liverpool could see United pip them at the post.
Chelsea end the season at home, against Wigan.
Reason for United fans to be hopeful:
Wigan seem to have reserved their spot in next year's Premier League with three goals in the last 10 minutes to beat Arsenal. They beat Arsenal!
46 Reasons to expect Chelsea to win:
That's 46 points out of a potential 51 (15 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) at Stamford Bridge. Wigan on the other hand have lost 12 out of 17 on the road.
I'll be honest, till I saw those statistics, I harboured some hope that Wigan might pull something off.
At the end of the day though, not to be cliché, but it's a funny funny game. While small clubs like Stoke and Wigan are both safe from relegation (pretty much), come May 9th they may be able to play spoiler against one of the bigger sides, and that added incentive might produce some surprises.
Also, and I only realised this after I picked out the picture for this article, the potential absence of two key figures in both title challengers may be crucial in deciding where this year's league trophy ends up.
Wayne Rooney has been an injury worry, certainly of late, and as much as I'd like to believe we can keep winning without the boy-wonder on the field, it's oh-so much easier when he's on it. While United do have other sources for their goals, most notably opposition defenders, none are as reliable as Rooney is.
John Terry may not be as crucial to Chelsea as Rooney is to United, however it isn't to be completely disregarded (thanks to my brother for reminding me about this point). His sending off against Tottenham, means he'll miss Chelsea's next encounter against Stoke. I'm sure Chelsea fans won't lose too much sleep given that the words "prolific goal scorer" don't really go with any of Stoke's players. Still, if Stoke start to find some gaps in that Chelsea defense, you know why!
So there it is, United - Tottenham, Chelsea - Liverpool, those will be the defining games of this Premier League season. For Chelsea it's simple, win win win. Their fate is in their own hands...for United fans, just hope those hands are as safe as Lukasz Fabianski...
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